Fantasy Premier League – GW38 Transfer Activity

MilosNS
May 20, 2022
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GW38 Transfers

Written by: FPLijah

Gameweek 37 was yet another gameweek that saw huge swings in terms of points, with some FPL managers surpassing the 100 points mark with relative ease, and some barely reaching 30 points, including managers ranked in the Top 100 overall. It’s time for one last push! One last time to take a wild punt for those of you chasing in mini-leagues or overall rank, or for managers that are quite happy to retain rank or protect a lead in their mini-leagues, to target players that will likely guarantee that.

GW38 Premier League Table

Fantasy Premier League managers are extremely active at present. The focus of this article is transfer activity, and using the Official Fantasy Premier League website, at the time of writing this article, for the final time this FPL Season, these are the Top 5 most transferred in and most transferred out players ahead of Gameweek 38:

GW38 Table

Let’s go through each player amongst the Top 5 transfer activity and assess whether we should invest (in the case of transfers in) or jump onto the bandwagon of selling the most transferred out players.

Top Transfers IN this Gameweek:

Son (Price: £11.2m; Ownership: 32.9%)

Son Heung-Min is the player that EVERY SINGLE FPL MANAGER should be targeting for Gameweek 38 if you don’t already have him (myself included). Tottenham have now taken pole position to claim the final UEFA Champions League spot for the 2022/23 Season, by snatching the Top 4 from Arsenal. Spurs go into GW38 with a must win fixture, in what is arguably the best fixture to target, as Spurs face Norwich. The already relegated Norwich will play their final fixture in front of their home fans and will likely go all-out attack. I fancy this game to see quite a few goals and with Son chasing the golden boot, being just one goal behind Mohamed Salah, there is added motivation for him to return. Son is also 13 points behind Salah in Fantasy Premier League, which is yet another race between two brilliant wingers to be the highest FPL points scorer for the 2021/22 Season. Son is the most in-form player heading into GW38, amassing 90 points in the last 8 Gameweeks, which included 3 blanks as well, which is quite incredible. Son will likely have the highest effective ownership (EO) in the Top 10k, and if you want to protect your rank or mini-league lead, he should be your go-to captain.

If you’re chasing, captain a different player like Salah (if Klopp confirms that he is fit to start), Kane, Mount (fully rested in GW37 and will likely start in GW38), etc., but you should still aim to own Son. Will Kane give up penalty duties to Son if Spurs are awarded a penalty? In my opinion, unless Spurs are already 3 goals up, I don’t see it happening. This fixture is too important, but with that said, Spurs could very be three goals up before a penalty could happen. Going into GW38 without Son could be FPL suicide, as it has the potential to absolutely undo all your hard work throughout this season if he does indeed haul. Don’t overthink it, get Son in.

Bowen (Price: £6.9m; Ownership: 13.0%)

Bowen has gone a little under the radar in recent Gameweeks, with FPL managers focusing on bringing in Double Gameweek players into our teams. Bowen scored two goals in GW37 against Manchester City, and after scoring the second goal for West Ham, Bowen took his tally up to 33 points in the last 3 Gameweeks, scoring 3 and assisting 3. West Ham goes into GW38 with a must win fixture, if they are to clinch 6th place from Manchester United, which is the final place in the Premier League to be able to join the Europa League in the 2022/23 Season. West Ham will face Brighton in GW38, making this such an attractive fixture to target, and with Bowen’s recent form, would definitely make him a worthy differential captaincy punt, if you are looking to go high risk high reward. If you’ve got no issues in your squad in terms of injury or likely rotation, Bowen is an amazing transfer target, and I am not surprised to see him as the second most transferred in player at present (just a little short of being top) for the final gameweek of the season.

De Bruyne (Price: £12.1m; Ownership: 16.7%)

After his mega haul of 24 points against Wolves and a total of 30 points in Double Gameweek 36, Kevin De Bruyne was sought after by so many FPL managers, even those on a Free Hit in DGW37. I did advise you that you were chasing the previous Gameweek’s points, and that was exactly what happened since Kevin De Bruyne blanked in GW37. Manchester City will go into Gameweek 38 as the strong favorite to win the 2021/22 Premier League Title, in what is a must win fixture against Aston Villa. I predict Villa to be a tough game for the ‘Cityzens,’ but I do foresee a Man City win regardless. With doubts surrounding Mohamed Salah’s fitness to some extent and with him likely getting reduced minutes, going from Mo to KDB is an easy transfer. I understand the logic of De Bruyne in GW38, but I would look at more explosive options in my opinion, like Mount, Maddison, Son, Kane, Luis Diaz, etc.

Kane (Price: £12.5m; Ownership: 22.0%)

Just like Son Heung-Min, Harry Kane will have everything to play for in GW38, with Spurs playing a must win game against an already relegated Norwich. On paper, I would actually fancy Kane as the better captaincy shout, as I felt in GW37 (which proved to be correct). Kane is on penalties, and I cannot see him giving up one to Son to chase down that Golden Boot unless the match is already put to bed. Kane has 4 goals in the last 4 Gameweeks. Kane is 100% a captaincy shout for GW38. If you can get Kane in with up to a -4, I’d consider it. A little word of warning, but as I sit here and type this article, I have just read that there could have been a food poisoning breakout in the Spurs camp. Some reporters and journalists have dismissed this claim but did go on to say that Kane is the only player feeling unwell at present. This is something to monitor and exactly why I always preach that you should never make early transfers (unless absolutely needed). The thing with Spurs though, is that they’re heavily reliant on Harry Kane. He is their playmaker and striker, so if he is okay in any way, I suspect he will start and play 90 minutes. We should hopefully hear more regarding this before the deadline on Sunday, 22 May.

Luis Diaz (Price: £8.1m; Ownership: 6.6%)

Luis Diaz is undoubtedly my favourite punt and differential player for Gameweek 38. Whenever he plays for Liverpool, he looks electric and massively involved in attack. The only issue we’ve had as FPL managers was his rotation with Jota, but in recent weeks, it’s quite clear to see that Diaz makes Liverpool’s best starting XI. In the last 2 Gameweeks that he’s started, Diaz provided one goal and one assist. In GW37, he was given a full rest, with Jota starting. This definitely indicates that Diaz will start in GW38, especially with slight doubts surrounding Mohamed Salah. Diaz could be that wild punt that comes off and you could fly up in rank. If I could bring him into my own team without a big hit involved, I’d do it. I unfortunately have a ton of injuries in my squad and may have to miss out on owning this gem of an FPL asset for the final gameweek of the season.

Top Transfers OUT this Gameweek:

Salah (Price: £13.1m; Ownership 46.3%)

The most consistent FPL player, the highest owned player in the game, the highest points scorer this season, ‘The King’, Mohamed Salah has been given the boot by nearly 263 000 FPL managers at present for GW38. For some, it’s been an emotional transfer, after trusting him with the captaincy and Triple Captaincy in DGW36, scoring just 3 points in 2 fixtures, followed by missing out in GW37 completely after sustaining an injury in the FA Cup Final against Chelsea and departing the field after 33 minutes. Salah is in the race for the Golden Boot and Playmaker of the Season Awards, leading by just 1 goal (ahead of Son) and 1 assist (ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold), with Liverpool playing a fixture that they absolutely have to win against Wolves if they are to ask any questions of Manchester City with regards to the Premier League Title. Taking all those factors into consideration, this would make Mohamed Salah a standout captaincy option with Son Heung-Min, but that would completely depend on whether Salah starts or not in GW38.

To get a slight indication on this, Jurgen Klopp had his GW38 Manager presser earlier today and these were his comments regarding Salah, van Dijk and Fabinho: “It looks all good. What we do with them for the weekend, I have no idea. I understand 100% [Salah’s] goalscoring battle with Heung-min Son but there is no chance that we take any risk, but Mo doesn’t want to take any risks, there’s no doubt about that. It looks good, the boys make steps. We will see. My preferred solution would be they all could play at the weekend for rhythm reasons, stuff like this, or at least could be on the bench and then we can bring them on or not. If not, then we take it from there. I cannot say 100%.” Based on these comments it seems like Salah will likely be involved, but whether or not he starts is still up in the air. If there is no early team news, I’d suggest selling him, as he may come off the bench for 30 minutes or so, with players like Son, De Bruyne, Kane (if feeling well), Mane, etc. more likely to play a full 90 minutes. If there is news of Salah starting, it’s an easy keep and a temptation to captain (I’d still favour Son as the better captaincy option at present due to Salah’s likely reduced minutes).

Dennis (Price: £5.8m; Ownership 22.0%)

Dennis played just 72 minutes in DGW36, after going off injured in the first fixture against Crystal Palace, much to the disappointment of so many FPL managers who relied on the forward. He did not feature at all in GW37 and is unlikely to play in GW38. He is an easy sell.

van Dijk (Price: £6.8m; Ownership 18.8%)

Based on Klopp’s comments about the injuries sustained in the FA Cup Final, it seems that van Dijk and Fabinho have a better chance of starting than Mohamed Salah. With Liverpool needing a victory, if Virgil van Dijk is fit, I believe he starts. He is Liverpool’s rock and leader at the back and often dictates the tempo of play. If you’ve got cover in defence, I’d start Virgil and if he doesn’t start, I don’t foresee him being substituted on and your bench will come into play. Focus on the explosive options.

Coutinho (Price: £7.1m; Ownership 12.3%)

After completely blanking, many FPL managers are looking at more attractive options in midfield around a similar price bracket and I absolutely don’t blame them. Mount, Saka, Maddison, Diaz and Barnes are all better options in my opinion than Coutinho in GW38, as Aston Villa take on Manchester City. Coutinho and Danny Ings were given a rest in the second fixture of DGW37, with just a few minutes towards the back end of the game. It’s safe to say that they will be fresh going into the final Gameweek, and I absolutely wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset in this fixture with both the ex-Liverpool players coming away with attacking returns.

Cash (Price: £5.3m; Ownership 12.8%)

One of the biggest disappointments of DGW37 were the Aston Villa assets and Matty Cash was certainly 1 of them, blanking in both fixtures, whilst his fellow wingback (Digne) had an assist. I can only assume that FPL managers are either upgrading Cash to the likes of Robertson, Cancelo, Rudiger, James or Alonso; or downgrading for Sessegnon from Spurs with incredible stats and a great fixture in GW38.

Final Thoughts

Gameweek 38 is often a crazy Gameweek that is unpredictable, but what we always tend to see is a ton of goals. If we look at the 3 highest FPL point scorers in the last 5 seasons, 70% is from the traditional ‘Big 6’ Premier League teams, 70% are against the teams positioned in the bottom half of the league table, Liverpool players have appeared in the Top 3 the most of any team, and both Wolves and Watford were the teams the biggest points were scored against. Make of that what you will.

That sums up my opinion on the Top 5 Transfer Activity for GW38. Look out for more articles by myself (FPLijah).

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Author MilosNS

MilosNS is our first ever tipster who started working with us, and he is still here. He is a well-known name in the sports betting industry, and his knowledge about anything betting related is vast. If you have any questions, or doubts, MilosNS has the answer for you.

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