Expected Value (+EV) – Advanced Betting Strategy

Bet Experts
December 23, 2021
expected value betting

Every player dreams of one day finding a strategy that will be effective enough to make a profit in the long run. One of the strategies that might interest you is the Expected Value Strategy. In this article, we will focus in detail on this strategy, as well as on all the advantages and disadvantages that you might encounter.

The expected value of a specific bet shows you how much you can expect to win or lose per bet. There are positive expected values (+EV), and negative expected values (-EV), and those parameters show how much you will profit/lose over time. This article will focus on this advanced betting strategy and explain how to take the most betting this way.

How Do You Calculate the Expected Value (+EV)

The formula for calculating Expected Value is simple. To calculate the expected value for sports betting, you can fill in the decimals odds with a few calculations: Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake. Choosing bets by +EV strategy is something most “sharp” bettors practice. Recreational players usually pick their selections on a match day, while professionals react and invest much earlier.

Knowing that we can say that recreational bettors are more like casino players, gambling and hoping that they will win money. Best betting sites spent millions developing and implementing the best oddsmakers, algorithms, and software to make the most accurate odds and lines. The best tipsters in the world win around 57-58% of their bets, but betting with Expected Value Strategy, they manage to make a profit.


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Why Is +EV Strategy Smart?

Practicing the +EV strategy means that you often beat the market and have the edge over the bookmakers. Long term, taking +EV bets will put you in the profit. If you take Real Madrid to beat Barcelona at 2.20 odds, and you believe the odds have to be much lower (in this case, let’s say 1.90), and it actually happens, that means you sit in a good spot. The odds that stood before the kick-off are also called the closing line. So, in other words, the closing line is the *last* odds that are shown before the match kicks off. Back to our main point, if you take that 2.20 odds line on Real Madrid and the closing odds is say 1.90, you sit on a +0.30 edge. This is also called +EV (expected value).

The opposite situation to +EV is the -EV, and then betting sites usually make a profit. We have explained what +EV is, so in this case -EV, the story is the complete opposite. For example, you took a bet at 2.00 odds, and the closing line is 2.30, which means you are in -EV of -0.30, meaning that the bookmaker has the edge over YOU. This happens to the best of us, where we can sometimes take a -EV bet as nobody is perfect in this industry. However, you’ve got to try and not take as many of those because that’s not the right way to bet long term, and the bookmakers will eventually profit from you. However, it is essential to know that a -EV bet can also win. +EV or -EV bet has nothing to do with the outcome; in other words, we can’t control the outcome of a game we’ve bet on; we can only control the bet that we take.

Staking Methods in Expected Value Betting Strategy

If you read our site regularly, you know that we have written about different staking methods in the past, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each. The expected value strategy works best with the unit staking system. Most professional bettors use a 1-3 units staking plan, where one unit represents around +0.20 value. In short, the bigger the numbers in terms of edge, the higher the unit you need to stake.

The downside of the expected value betting strategy is that you might get restricted and limited by many soft books. If the betting site algorithm detects that you win regularly, you will not be able to put the desired stake on many selections. Because of that, it is vital to find respected betting sites and register accounts there. A list of quality and recommended betting sites, you can find here.


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  • Is there universal expected value formula?

    What is specific to this method of betting is that there is no universal formula, but each bettor must find a system and formula that suits him best and that makes a profit long term. Several very profitable Tipsters make a solid profit from sports betting.

  • How to make money from home?

    If you are disciplined and make quality decisions on a regular basis, chances are high that you will be able to make money from sports betting. Our recommendation is to follow our educational articles and try to educate yourself as much as possible.

  • Which new betting sites are good?

    Nowadays, when new betting sites appear almost every day, it isn't easy to choose the ones that are high quality and that give their customers a safe and legal service. On our site, you can find a large number of detailed reviews of quality betting sites, so we recommend that you read them and carefully choose your new operator.

  • How to calculate expected value?

    Depending on the sport you prefer to bet on, the way you calculate the expected value also depends. For example, if you bet on basketball, you can use the strings that teams play, while in football, you have to enter other variables, such as player absences or H2H.

  • Where to find quality paid tipsters?

    There are a large number of sites on the Internet but also accounts on social networks that offer paid predictions to their users. Depending on which betting method you prefer, you should choose the orders you will follow. On our website, you can find Monthly Tipster Reviews.

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